While the End of Season Points Prediction still have Portland in the lead, the Monte Carlo simulation shows Montreal are slightly favored - although neither team have incredible chances yet, just 18% and 16% as of right now.
Monday, March 21, 2016
March 20, 2016
This week's biggest movers are Philadelphia and Vancouver with 22 and 21 points respectively. Portland remains at the top of the Points Predicted despite losing to San Jose on the road. Seattle continues to plummet in the standings; they are looking at -57 points on the year through week three. Still perfect Kansas City have climbed the most, with +41 on the year.
While the End of Season Points Prediction still have Portland in the lead, the Monte Carlo simulation shows Montreal are slightly favored - although neither team have incredible chances yet, just 18% and 16% as of right now.
While the End of Season Points Prediction still have Portland in the lead, the Monte Carlo simulation shows Montreal are slightly favored - although neither team have incredible chances yet, just 18% and 16% as of right now.
Monday, March 14, 2016
March 13, 2016
After a weekend of several surprise results, there is a lot of movement in the power ratings. Unsurprisingly, Houston is the biggest beneficiary after dolling out the 5-0 harshness to Dallas - a result that earned them 39 points in the ratings, and +6.852 in their end of season points prediction. Other large positive moves were made by Philadelphia (+22 / + 5.030), Montreal (+21 / +4.156) and San Jose (+17 / +4.122).
Portland still retains its lead for the Supporters Shield run in terms of points prediction, but their lead has been narrowed from a runaway 9.2 points, to a mere 3.3 points. That race is only just beginning, of course.
Looking forward to next week's fixtures, Portland vs Salt Lake is the most lop-sided match with Portland expecting 2.26 points from that game, while Philadelphia vs New England is the closest to a coinflip.
Monday, March 7, 2016
March 6, 2016
Well it's been almost a year and a half since I've updated my blog. Fortunately, I have kept up with the Elo Rater itself. It just got to be a hassle to update the rater then update the blog afterward, so the blog part got dropped off midway through 2014 and I was too lazy to ever pick it back up. This season I decided to give it another go. We'll see how long I stick with it.
Anywho, Week 1 of 2016 is in the books, and I've spit out some data. As always, my Elo Ratings carry over from the prior year, which is why Portland is on top and Chicago are bottom. Remarkably, the Monte Carlo estimation is showing that Chicago don't even have a chance at the Supporters Shield right now. They won't crack that board until they get a win. Or maybe a few.
Anywho, Week 1 of 2016 is in the books, and I've spit out some data. As always, my Elo Ratings carry over from the prior year, which is why Portland is on top and Chicago are bottom. Remarkably, the Monte Carlo estimation is showing that Chicago don't even have a chance at the Supporters Shield right now. They won't crack that board until they get a win. Or maybe a few.
Year End 2015
Year End 2015
| Rtg | Team |
| 1644 | Portland Timbers |
| 1608 | New York Red Bulls |
| 1581 | FC Dallas |
| 1575 | Seattle Sounders FC |
| 1538 | Montreal Impact |
| 1536 | Columbus Crew |
| 1531 | Los Angeles Galaxy |
| 1510 | San Jose Earthquakes |
| 1507 | New England Revolution |
| 1500 | Sporting Kansas City |
| 1497 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC |
| 1483 | Orlando City SC |
| 1473 | Real Salt Lake |
| 1468 | DC United |
| 1452 | Philadelphia Union |
| 1444 | Houston Dynamo |
| 1439 | New York City FC |
| 1433 | Toronto FC |
| 1411 | Colorado Rapids |
| 1370 | Chicago Fire |
West Average: 1516.60
East Average: 1483.40
Year End 2014
Year End 2014
| Rtg | Team |
| 1674 | Los Angeles Galaxy |
| 1608 | New England Revolution |
| 1608 | Seattle Sounders FC |
| 1595 | Portland Timbers |
| 1573 | FC Dallas |
| 1560 | New York Red Bulls |
| 1559 | Real Salt Lake |
| 1556 | DC United |
| 1537 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC |
| 1509 | Columbus Crew |
| 1484 | Philadelphia Union |
| 1479 | Sporting Kansas City |
| 1444 | Chicago Fire |
| 1431 | Houston Dynamo |
| 1404 | San Jose Earthquakes |
| 1393 | Montreal Impact |
| 1390 | Toronto FC |
| 1363 | Colorado Rapids |
| 1333 | Chivas USA |
West Average: 1516.22
East Average: 1485.40
Tuesday, July 1, 2014
June 29th, 2014
For the first half of the season, the story was Real Salt Lake maintaining a healthy lead on the field and Kansas City struggling to keep up. In their last 11 games, Seattle has nine wins, one draw, and one loss. To be fair, the one loss was a 0-5 drubbing to New England, but that's still a very impressive stretch of games. Those results have put them at 35 points total, 10 points clear of second place. It has also vaulted them to the top of the Elo ratings.
Salt Lake has taken a slide, recording zero wins, two draws, and three losses in their last five games (not coincidentally, all these games have occurred since Beckerman and Rimando were called up to the national team). Their rating has slid from a comfortable first place to a precariously-close-to-slipping-farther 3rd place.
Kansas City has managed to turn around their slide with two back-to-back road wins against Houston and Portland. Astonishing considering their injury woes as of late. Despite a string of fortunate results, I fully expect the limping KC squad to sink farther.
Los Angeles is starting to show some life, finally getting back to the rating they finished the season with last year. Philadelphia, Montreal and Chivas also made big positive moves this weekend, but they all have a long way to go.
This week's big sliders were New England and Vancouver, tanking almost 5 full End of Season Predicted Points each. Here are the full numbers:
So all this boils down to Seattle having a 78.5% chance to win the Supporter's Shield at this point. If Seattle doesn't start dropping points soon, they could easily put that race out of reach in the next few months.
Salt Lake has taken a slide, recording zero wins, two draws, and three losses in their last five games (not coincidentally, all these games have occurred since Beckerman and Rimando were called up to the national team). Their rating has slid from a comfortable first place to a precariously-close-to-slipping-farther 3rd place.
Kansas City has managed to turn around their slide with two back-to-back road wins against Houston and Portland. Astonishing considering their injury woes as of late. Despite a string of fortunate results, I fully expect the limping KC squad to sink farther.
Los Angeles is starting to show some life, finally getting back to the rating they finished the season with last year. Philadelphia, Montreal and Chivas also made big positive moves this weekend, but they all have a long way to go.
This week's big sliders were New England and Vancouver, tanking almost 5 full End of Season Predicted Points each. Here are the full numbers:
So all this boils down to Seattle having a 78.5% chance to win the Supporter's Shield at this point. If Seattle doesn't start dropping points soon, they could easily put that race out of reach in the next few months.
June 11, 2014
Here are the standings through the beginning of the World Cup break on June 11, 2014. The "Season Change" numbers are the comparison of the June 11th ratings to what they were at the beginning of the season. This is a change from what it was previously - a comparison over the last month of play. I think this makes it easier to visualize how teams' overall seasonal form is. In the future I hope to include graphs that even better display this information, but I'd need to go back and re-run some numbers to get all the data to do so.
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