Monday, April 21, 2014

April 19, 2014

An abundance of draws means there wasn't a lot of movement in the standings this past week. In fact, the greatest ratings change any one team saw was Philadelphia (-11), and that is only due to an aggregation of two negative results. The biggest changes from a single game were DC United grabbing 10 points from Columbus and Seattle grabbing 10 points from Chivas. Kansas City's 4-0 blowout over Montreal was worth only 9 points due to the initial disparity of their ratings.

As a result, the end of season points predictions didn't move much. Philadelphia dropped nearly 2.5 points, but most teams were in the 0-2 range.

Despite the low movement on the Elo ratings, there were some significant movements on the Monte Carlo playoff scenarios. New York and Seattle saw favorable changes of about 15 and 10 percentage points respectively, while Philadelphia tanked a little over 11 points. Overall positions weren't affected much, and in the Supporters Shield race the rich get richer while the poor get poorer.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

April 13, 2014

Dallas dropping points to Seattle was the headliner this weekend. That loss drops Dallas 20 points to 1513, while Seattle leapfrogs them to 1524. That moves the end of season predicted points about 4 points for each team. DC and New York had a similar outcome with similar results. Portland, Houston and San Jose continue to descend in the rankings, while Los Angeles and Colorado pick up some points. Finally, Salt Lake dropping points on the road narrows the gap at the top, and are now projected leaders by only 1.7 points.

 Boop boop beep boop. Monte Carlo output:

Saturday, April 12, 2014

April 6, 2014

Dallas and Toronto are the biggest winners of the week. Dallas' 4-1 road win over Houston vault them 37 rating points and up to third place in the western conference end of season predictions. Toronto's 2-0 road win over Columbus rewards them with 33 rating points. Last week, Toronto were 5.8 points behind Philadelphia in the predicted standings; their result cut that gap down to 0.2 points. They've now caught up with a large pack of teams that are predicted to be in the playoff hunt, which means another big result for Toronto will finally shoot them up the standings several places. This week they host the 5th highest ranked Colorado, which means another potential big move.

Another interesting development: Chivas and DC United. Despite the fact that Chivas has one more point on the season and a slightly higher Elo rating, DC are predicted to finish slightly above them. This is a direct result of the western conference being stronger than the eastern conference. Right now the west averages a rating of about 1528, while the east is around 1475.

Finally, Salt Lake's draw in Kansas City marginally increased the gap between the #1 and the #2 in the predicted standings; Salt Lake is now predicted as SS winner by 2.9 points.

On the Monte Carlo side of the numbers, Kansas City moves to the top as the team with the best average finishing position. As mentioned before, this is because the eastern conference is weaker than the western conference. Coupled with a faltering Houston team, Kansas City are looking to be an early lock for eastern #1. Despite Kansas City's higher modeled average finish, Salt Lake's Supperters Shield chances increased by taking the road point from the champions. On the other side of the table, Chivas look to be a lock for west #9.