Sunday, March 31, 2013

March 30th, 2013


Elo Ratings

End of Season Points Predicted
Rtng Team (Chng)

Team Pts Pred
1665   Los Angeles Galaxy  (-9)

Los Angeles Galaxy 8 67.533
1607   Sporting Kansas City  (+12)

Houston Dynamo 9 60.762
1598   Houston Dynamo  (+16)

Sporting Kansas City 8 59.254
1582   San Jose Earthquakes  (-16)

San Jose Earthquakes 7 56.877
1556   Seattle Sounders FC  (-12)

Montreal Impact 12 55.028
1548   Real Salt Lake  (+12)

Real Salt Lake 7 52.915
1538   Columbus Crew  (---)

Columbus Crew 7 52.882
1530   Montreal Impact  (-12)

FC Dallas 12 52.076
1530   DC United  (---)

DC United 4 49.382
1520   New York Red Bulls  (+8)

Seattle Sounders FC 1 49.105
1515   FC Dallas  (+16)

New York Red Bulls 5 47.326
1459   Chicago Fire  (---)

Philadelphia Union 6 39.365
1440   Philadelphia Union  (-8)

Chivas USA 10 37.076
1422   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (-13)

Vancouver Whitecaps FC 6 36.726
1417   New England Revolution  (-16)

Chicago Fire 1 36.062
1414   Colorado Rapids  (-5)

New England Revolution 4 34.670
1410   Portland Timbers  (+5)

Portland Timbers 3 32.615
1395   Chivas USA  (+13)

Colorado Rapids 2 31.625
1354   Toronto FC  (+9)

Toronto FC 4 27.669






West Average: 1500.77




East Average: 1499.3







Upcoming Matches

Match Home Draw Away
SKC v DCU 59.00% 26.68% 14.32%
TOR v DAL 23.93% 31.98% 44.09%
COL v RSL 27.30% 32.80% 39.90%
CLB v PHI 62.09% 25.20% 12.71%
SJE v VAN 70.50% 20.66% 8.84%
LAG v MON 67.25% 22.50% 10.25%
POR v HOU 20.85% 30.82% 48.33%
CHI v NYR 37.61% 33.10% 29.29%
SEA v CHV 70.63% 20.59% 8.79%
MON v CLB 45.81% 31.54% 22.64%
VAN v RSL 28.35% 32.98% 38.67%
DAL v LAG 25.27% 32.36% 42.37%
SEA v NER 67.79% 22.21% 10.01%
PHI v TOR 60.34% 26.06% 13.61%
DCU v NYR 48.65% 30.72% 20.63%
CHV v COL 44.09% 31.98% 23.93%

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Let's Take a Look at San Marino...

This Tuesday, San Marino lost in Warsaw to a Polish team that finished with a comfortable 5-0 victory. Coupled with the other group result of Montenegro 1-1 England, San Marino sits in a rather precarious position.

San Marino is not mathematically eliminated. But their chances are so slim it's truly remarkable.

Here is the table as it currently stands:

Team Pld  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts
 Montenegro  6 4 2 0 14 3 11 14
 England  6 3 3 0 21 3 18 12
 Poland  5 2 2 1 11 6 5 8
 Ukraine  5 2 2 1 6 4 2 8
 Moldova  6 1 1 4 3 10 -7 4
 San Marino  6 0 0 6 0 29 -29 0

With four games left, it is mathematically possible for San Marino to still achieve the 12 points needed to qualify for the next round (recall that the top spot gets automatic qualification, and the top eight number two teams (of nine groups) play a head to head round to determine four more teams that qualify).

What is not immediately obvious, however, is just how hard that would be. Here are the remaining matches in this group:

June 7: Montenegro vs. Ukraine
June 7: Moldova vs. Poland
Sept 6: Ukraine vs. San Marino
Sept 6: England vs. Moldova
Sept 6: Poland vs. Montenegro
Sept 10: Ukraine vs. England
Sept 10: San Marino vs. Poland
Oct 11: Moldova vs. San Marino
Oct 11: Ukraine vs. Poland
Oct 11: England vs. Montenegro
Oct 15: England vs. Poland
Oct 15: San Marino vs. Ukraine
Oct 15: Montenegro vs. Moldova

Eight of these games have obvious results if we want San Marino to go on to the next round: England has to lose their last four, and San Marino has to win their last four. Plugging those results into the table, we get:

Team Pld  W  D  L  Pts
 Montenegro  7 5 2 0 17
 San Marino  10 4 0 6 12
 England  10 3 3 4 12
 Poland  7 3 2 2 11
 Ukraine  8 3 2 3 11
 Moldova  8 2 1 5 7

Forcing England to lose all of their games brings Poland and Ukraine within one point of the 12 point best that San Marino can still mathematically achieve. And the five match-ups that haven't yet been accounted for are:

June 7: Montenegro vs. Ukraine
June 7: Moldova vs. Poland
Sept 6: Poland vs. Montenegro
Oct 11: Ukraine vs. Poland
Oct 15: Montenegro vs. Moldova

Since Ukraine and Poland play each other, that match must end in a draw, AND they have to outright lose the rest of their games. That gives us:

Team Pld  W  D  L  Pts
 Montenegro  9 7 2 0 23
 San Marino  10 4 0 6 12
 England  10 3 3 4 12
 Poland  10 3 3 4 12
 Ukraine  10 3 3 4 12
 Moldova  9 3 1 5 10

And the last game left is Montenegro vs. Moldova. And Moldova can't win that one, or they leap frog San Marino as well.

That means of the thirteen remaining matches, all thirteen have to have specific results or else San Marino is eliminated. To top it all off, San Marino would have to overcome a 49 goal deficit to win the tie-breaker and make it to the qualification round.

Let's re-cap. In order for San Marino to qualify for the second round of UEFA qualifying, every single one of the following things has to happen:

1) June 7: Montenegro beats Ukraine, AND
2) June 7: Moldova beats Poland, AND
3) Sept 6: Ukraine loses to San Marino, AND
4) Sept 6: England loses to Moldova, AND
5) Sept 6: Poland loses to Montenegro, AND
6) Sept 10: Ukraine beats England, AND
7) Sept 10: San Marino beats Poland, AND
8) Oct 11: Moldova loses to San Marino, AND
9) Oct 11: Ukraine draws Poland, AND
10) Oct 11: England loses to Montenegro, AND
11) Oct 15: England loses to Poland, AND
12) Oct 15: San Marino beats Ukraine, AND
13) Oct 15: Montenegro does not lose to Moldova, AND
14) San Marino overcomes a goal deficit of 49 in four games, AND
15) San Marino finishes top 8 (of 9) amongst the second place finishers

And more to that last point, the current projected cut-off is 12.5 points, so even if San Marino were to finish second in their group, chances are they would finish 9th amongst the second place finishers.

Wow.

So, what are the odds of such a thing actually happening? Well, if I steal the current ratings from www.eloratings.net and plug them into my Elo rater (it's not a perfect fit, admittedly, I don't use the exact same model as eloratings.net does, but it'll work as a fairly good approximation), I can approximate the odds of specific results. The current Elo ratings are:

1924 England
1741 Ukraine
1659 Montenegro
1650 Poland
1351 Moldova
  860 San Marino

The calculated probabilities are in the following table, and the desired results are hi-lighted:

Home Away H-Elo A-Elo E[X] W D L
Montenegro Ukraine 1659 1741 0.51 0.3449 0.3332 0.3219
Moldova Poland 1351 1650 0.23 0.1125 0.2368 0.6507
Ukraine San Marino 1741 860 1.00 0.9938 0.0049 0.0013
England Moldova 1924 1351 0.98 0.9644 0.0281 0.0075
Poland Montenegro 1650 1659 0.61 0.4566 0.3159 0.2276
Ukraine England 1741 1924 0.37 0.2140 0.3105 0.4755
San Marino Poland 860 1650 0.02 0.0060 0.0229 0.9711
Moldova San Marino 1351 860 0.97 0.9440 0.0439 0.0121
Ukraine Poland 1741 1650 0.74 0.6107 0.2570 0.1323
England Montenegro 1924 1659 0.89 0.8176 0.1354 0.0470
England Poland 1924 1650 0.89 0.8254 0.1301 0.0445
San Marino Ukraine 860 1741 0.01 0.0035 0.0138 0.9827
Montenegro Moldova 1659 1351 0.91 0.8525 0.1112 0.0362

The the odds of all of these results going San Marino's way (which is simply ascertained by multiplying all the hi-lighted probabilities together) is 0.00000000000000000237823.

Or about 1 in 420 quadrillion.

And that's a very lower bound, conservative estimate, since we haven't even taken into consideration that San Marino has to beat each of their opponents by about twelve goals each.

A person has better chances at winning the Mega Millions lottery jackpot... twice.


So San Marino isn't mathematically eliminated yet, but no matter what odds your bookie gives you, don't take that bet.

Monday, March 25, 2013

March 24th, 2013

Chivas climbs out of the cellar with some huge movement from their road game, Montreal continues to climb, and Kansas City finally falls from number two.


Elo Ratings

End of Season Points Predicted
Rtng Team (Chng)

Team Pts Pred
1674   Los Angeles Galaxy  (+4)

Los Angeles Galaxy 7 69.774
1598   San Jose Earthquakes  (+10)

San Jose Earthquakes 7 59.660
1595   Sporting Kansas City  (-3)

Houston Dynamo 6 57.499
1582   Houston Dynamo  (+6)

Montreal Impact 12 57.380
1568   Seattle Sounders FC  (-10)

Sporting Kansas City 5 56.986
1542   Montreal Impact  (+10)

Columbus Crew 7 53.052
1538   Columbus Crew  (+20)

Seattle Sounders FC 1 51.673
1536   Real Salt Lake  (-20)

Real Salt Lake 4 49.946
1530   DC United  (-20)

DC United 4 49.338
1512   New York Red Bulls  (-10)

FC Dallas 9 48.173
1499   FC Dallas  (+20)

New York Red Bulls 2 45.436
1459   Chicago Fire  (-43)

Philadelphia Union 6 41.078
1448   Philadelphia Union  (---)

Vancouver Whitecaps FC 6 39.257
1435   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (-6)

New England Revolution 4 38.002
1433   New England Revolution  (+3)

Chicago Fire 1 36.010
1419   Colorado Rapids  (-4)

Chivas USA 7 34.174
1405   Portland Timbers  (---)

Colorado Rapids 1 32.923
1382   Chivas USA  (+43)

Portland Timbers 2 32.040
1345   Toronto FC  (---)

Toronto FC 3 26.267






West Average: 1501.77




East Average: 1498.4







Upcoming Matches

Match Home Draw Away
TOR v LAG 9.43% 21.47% 69.10%
NYR v PHI 57.04% 27.56% 15.41%
NER v DAL 36.86% 33.17% 29.96%
COL v POR 49.28% 30.52% 20.21%
SKC v MON 55.36% 28.27% 16.38%
HOU v SJE 44.56% 31.87% 23.58%
RSL v SEA 42.06% 32.42% 25.52%
CHV v VAN 38.83% 32.96% 28.22%
SKC v DCU 57.19% 27.49% 15.32%
TOR v DAL 24.78% 32.23% 42.99%
COL v RSL 29.56% 33.13% 37.31%
CLB v PHI 60.92% 25.77% 13.30%
SJE v VAN 70.88% 20.44% 8.68%
LAG v MON 66.85% 22.72% 10.43%
POR v HOU 22.07% 31.33% 46.60%
CHI v NYR 38.83% 32.96% 28.22%

Saturday, March 23, 2013

March 17, 2013


Elo Ratings

End of Season Points Predicted
Rtng Team (Chng)

Team Pts Pred
1670   Los Angeles Galaxy  (-12)

Los Angeles Galaxy468.983
1598   Sporting Kansas City  (-8)

Sporting Kansas City 4 57.822
1588   San Jose Earthquakes  (+1)

San Jose Earthquakes 4 57.496
1578   Seattle Sounders FC  (-10)

Houston Dynamo 3 55.634
1576   Houston Dynamo  (-16)

Montreal Impact 9 54.654
1556   Real Salt Lake  (-9)

Real Salt Lake 4 54.045
1550   DC United  (+3)

Seattle Sounders FC 1 53.978
1532   Montreal Impact  (+5)

DC United 4 53.399
1522   New York Red Bulls  (-3)

Columbus Crew 4 48.001
1518   Columbus Crew  (-1)

New York Red Bulls 2 47.560
1502   Chicago Fire  (+8)

FC Dallas 6 44.166
1479   FC Dallas  (+16)

Chicago Fire 1 43.375
1448   Philadelphia Union  (+11)

Philadelphia Union 6 40.698
1441   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (---)

Vancouver Whitecaps FC 6 40.687
1430   New England Revolution  (-11)

New England Revolution 3 37.512
1423   Colorado Rapids  (+9)

Colorado Rapids 1 33.952
1405   Portland Timbers  (+10)

Portland Timbers 2 32.415
1345   Toronto FC  (-5)

Chivas USA 4 27.426
1339   Chivas USA  (+12)

Toronto FC 3 26.188






West Average: 1497.66




East Average: 1502.1






 
Upcoming Matches

Match Home Draw Away
MON v NYR 48.65% 30.72% 20.63%
DCU v CLB 52.10% 29.54% 18.36%
NER v SKC 23.11% 31.71% 45.19%
HOU v VAN 67.25% 22.50% 10.25%
DAL v RSL 35.23% 33.29% 31.49%
LAG v COL 80.11% 14.65% 5.24%
SJE v SEA 48.65% 30.72% 20.63%
CHI v CHV 70.88% 20.44% 8.68%
TOR v LAG 9.66% 21.76% 68.58%
NYR v PHI 58.55% 26.88% 14.57%
NER v DAL 39.44% 32.87% 27.69%
COL v POR 49.91% 30.31% 19.78%
SKC v MON 57.34% 27.42% 15.23%
HOU v SJE 45.19% 31.71% 23.11%
RSL v SEA 43.62% 32.09% 24.29%
CHV v VAN 31.63% 33.29% 35.08%

Monday, March 11, 2013

March 10th, 2013

Quite a bit of rating movement here, but not a lot of positional movement. The two that really stick out to me are Toronto and Chivas. They both won, but they were in a deep hole and it's going to take much more to dig themselves out.

Elo Ratings

End of Season Points Predicted
Rtng Team (Chng)

Team Pts Pred
1682   Los Angeles Galaxy  (---)

Los Angeles Galaxy 3 72.153
1606   Sporting Kansas City  (-23)

Sporting Kansas City 3 59.851
1592   Houston Dynamo  (---)

Houston Dynamo 3 59.041
1588   Seattle Sounders FC  (---)

San Jose Earthquakes 3 57.750
1587   San Jose Earthquakes  (+9)

Seattle Sounders FC 0 56.742
1565   Real Salt Lake  (-13)

Real Salt Lake 3 56.591
1547   DC United  (+13)

Montreal Impact 6 53.285
1527   Montreal Impact  (+15)

DC United 3 53.016
1525   New York Red Bulls  (-9)

New York Red Bulls 1 48.437
1519   Columbus Crew  (-15)

Columbus Crew 3 48.351
1494   Chicago Fire  (-23)

Chicago Fire 0 41.961
1463   FC Dallas  (-26)

Vancouver Whitecaps FC 6 40.949
1441   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (+15)

FC Dallas 3 40.421
1441   New England Revolution  (+23)

New England Revolution 3 39.801
1437   Philadelphia Union  (+20)

Philadelphia Union 3 38.076
1414   Colorado Rapids  (-20)

Colorado Rapids 0 32.558
1395   Portland Timbers  (-15)

Portland Timbers 1 30.911
1350   Toronto FC  (+23)

Toronto FC 3 27.145
1327   Chivas USA  (+26)

Chivas USA 3 25.641






West Average: 1495.77




East Average: 1503.8





Upcoming Matches

Match Home Draw Away
NYR v DCU 43.62% 32.09% 24.29%
SKC v CHI 64.09% 24.19% 11.72%
MON v TOR 72.59% 19.42% 7.99%
PHI v NER 46.44% 31.37% 22.18%
CLB v SJE 36.56% 33.20% 30.24%
RSL v COL 69.36% 21.32% 9.32%
SEA v POR 74.47% 18.28% 7.26%
DAL v HOU 27.95% 32.92% 39.13%
LAG v CHV 88.40% 8.87% 2.73%
MON v NYR 47.39% 31.10% 21.51%
DCU v CLB 51.47% 29.77% 18.76%
NER v SKC 23.46% 31.83% 44.72%
HOU v VAN 69.36% 21.32% 9.32%
DAL v RSL 31.63% 33.29% 35.08%
LAG v COL 82.02% 13.36% 4.62%
SJE v SEA 46.92% 31.24% 21.85%

Thursday, March 7, 2013

March 3rd, 2013

We are still very dependent on last season's run of form in these ratings. It will take 5-7 weeks for these numbers to favor this season's run of form.

EDIT: I'll also be adding Elo based odds for upcoming games this year.

Elo Ratings

End of Season Points Predicted
Rtng Team (Chng)

Team Pts Pred
1682   Los Angeles Galaxy  (+12)

Los Angeles Galaxy 3 71.966
1629   Sporting Kansas City  (+16)

Sporting Kansas City 3 64.827
1592   Houston Dynamo  (+14)

Real Salt Lake 3 59.113
1588   Seattle Sounders FC  (-24)

Houston Dynamo 3 58.888
1578   San Jose Earthquakes  (-30)

Seattle Sounders FC 0 56.404
1578   Real Salt Lake  (+30)

San Jose Earthquakes 0 55.294
1534   New York Red Bulls  (-1)

Columbus Crew 3 51.712
1534   DC United  (-14)

New York Red Bulls 1 50.842
1534   Columbus Crew  (+19)

DC United 0 49.982
1517   Chicago Fire  (-12)

Montreal Impact 3 49.755
1512   Montreal Impact  (+24)

Chicago Fire 0 47.231
1489   FC Dallas  (+9)

FC Dallas 3 45.440
1434   Colorado Rapids  (-9)

Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3 37.176
1426   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (+8)

Colorado Rapids 0 36.681
1418   New England Revolution  (---)

New England Revolution 0 34.794
1417   Philadelphia Union  (-16)

Philadelphia Union 0 33.916
1410   Portland Timbers  (+1)

Portland Timbers 1 33.817
1327   Toronto FC  (-8)

Toronto FC 0 22.564
1301   Chivas USA  (-19)

Chivas USA 0 21.113






West Average: 1498.44




East Average: 1501.4







Upcoming Matches

Match Home Draw Away
VAN v CLB 30.79% 33.24% 35.97%
TOR v SKC 11.06% 23.46% 65.48%
COL v PHI 49.75% 30.36% 19.89%
DCU v RSL 40.20% 32.76% 27.04%
CHI v NER 62.23% 25.13% 12.63%
POR v MON 31.63% 33.29% 35.08%
CHV v DAL 20.85% 30.82% 48.33%
SJE v NYR 53.97% 28.83% 17.20%
NYR v DCU 47.07% 31.19% 21.73%
SKC v CHI 64.09% 24.19% 11.72%
MON v TOR 73.54% 18.85% 7.61%
PHI v NER 46.92% 31.24% 21.85%
CLB v SJE 40.20% 32.76% 27.04%
RSL v COL 68.45% 21.84% 9.72%
SEA v POR 72.71% 19.35% 7.94%
DAL v HOU 31.49% 33.29% 35.23%