Monday, April 17, 2017

April 15th, 2017

Last week's top five teams were Dallas, Toronto, Seattle, Portland, and Atlanta. This week, all five of those teams dropped points. Kansas City cracked the top five - jumping from 6th to 2nd - after picking up 20 rating points from Portland on the road. Other big results this week include Chicago over New England (23 points), New York City over Philadelphia (22 points), and Salt Lake over Colorado (20 points).

Toronto's loss to Columbus means Dallas and Kansas City are the last two unbeaten teams in the league. Fittingly, Dallas hosts Kansas City this weekend. On the other end of the table, Philadelphia are now at an all-league all-season low of 1396 and haven't had a positive result since opening weekend (a draw on the road to Vancouver). At this point, they are predicted to finish the season on a dismal 27.97 points.

In Monte Carlo simulations, Kansas City's Supporters Shield chances dramatically increase, going from 5% to 18.4% in the span of a week. Dallas remains largely unchanged at around a 40% chance for the title.

Monday, April 10, 2017

April 9th, 2017

The biggest win of the week goes to Real Salt Lake for their 3-0 victory over Vancouver at home. The win nets RSL a 22 point boost in the Elo Ratings, moving them from dead last to 19th in one performance. The basement now belongs to Philadelphia, who suffered a 1-3 defeat at home to Portland which saw them slide 21 points.

With 10 points from 4 games, Dallas sits atop the ratings and are currently favored by the Monte Carlo simulation to win the Supporters Shield. Despite good seasonal performances by Portland and Orlando, shades of last season prevent them from topping the Elo Ratings as of yet. At 13 points from 6 games and +56 rating points on the season, Portland currently sit at 4th overall in the rankings. At 9 points from 4 games, Orlando has only netted a total of 17 rating points this season, putting them in a middling 10th place overall. This is because all three of their wins have been by a one goal margin, and their loss to Columbus negated about one and a half of those wins. Speaking of seasonal movement, the expansion clubs have both moved quite a bit so far. Atlanta is hot on Portland's heel at +53 for the season, while Minnesota has unquestionably had the worst season so far with -68 rating points total. Here is a summary of the biggest movers on the season so far:

(+56) Portland Timbers
(+53) Atlanta United FC
(+36) FC Dallas
(+35) Sporting Kansas City

(-68) Minnesota United FC
(-39) Vancouver Whitecaps FC
(-38) Philadelphia Union
(-34) New York Red Bulls

Monday, April 3, 2017

April 2, 2017

Last week was a short week (3 games) so I've included the results in Week 5.

Minnesota had down and up results, with a 2-5 loss at New England and 4-2 win to Real Salt Lake - their first ever win. The two results nearly canceled each other out, which means they didn't end up moving much this time around. Columbus ended up being the biggest positive mover, after beating both Portland and Orlando at home. The biggest negative mover was the Red Bulls, who drew Real Salt Lake at home then lost to Houston on the road. Portland and Orlando losing means no team is still perfect, though Kansas City, Dallas, and Toronto remain undefeated. Through only five games, Minnesota has let up a mind-blowing 20 goals (on pace for 136 through the season).

Dallas and Toronto are still the top teams in the league, while Seattle has slipped a bit and is closing in on getting swallowed by the rest of the pack. Here are the full ratings: