Wednesday, May 7, 2014

May 4th, 2014

I didn't have a chance to update last week, so this is a two for one. Changes are based on all games from April 26th and May 4th. The significance of the NYRvHOU game on April 23rd kind of fell off the results here because I reset the Chng column after it was already in the numbers. Whoops. Anyway, New York won that game 4-0 and Houston went down 20 rating points, so it had a pretty significant impact on their current position, despite their Chng being positive in this exhibit.

Kansas City losing to New England 2-0 last week had a fairly significant impact on the End of Season Points Predicted Supporters Shield race: Salt Lake now has a little more than a four point advantage. New England has turned in some good form, moving up 55 rating points in the last month and improving their EoSPP by almost 7 points. That's a huge swing in just two weeks. Dallas has done just the opposite, moving down 62 rating points in the last month and almost 8 EoSPP in the last two weeks. Another big mover is Seattle, who is making their way back to the top of the ratings. On the bottom of the table, Chivas is now wooden spoon favorites by over 13 points.

On the Monte Carlo side, Dallas' playoff chances have fallen by almost 50 percentage points, while New England, New York, Seattle, and Vancouver has seen large positive gains. Kansas City has slipped a bit in the Supporters Shield estimated outcomes, but being that it is still early May, those number are extremely volatile.