Monday, March 20, 2017

March 19, 2017

Biggest mover this week was the Columbus Crew with their 2-0 road win over DC United. Toronto and Atlanta also had good weeks. Toronto finishes on top of the Elo ratings, but Toronto, Dallas, and Seattle are close enough in points that I expect the leader to change quite a bit in the coming weeks. Likewise, the bottom five (Chicago, Vancouver, Minnesota, DC United, Salt Lake) are close enough that I'd expect them to flip roles weekly. Salt Lake gets the jeer this week.

Next week is an international weekend and MLS only has 3 games scheduled, so I may or may not update, depending on how interesting those results are.

Monday, March 13, 2017

March 12, 2017

A couple of interesting results from this weekend:

Los Angeles lost their second straight game to start the season, falling to a rating of 1496. This is the first time Los Angeles has been under 1500 since July 8th, 2012, and the worst rating they've had since June 20th, 2012.

Minnesota's massive 42 point drop by way of their 1 to 6 home defeat to Atlanta was the 19th largest single-game rating swing of all time - out of 5030 games played in MLS's history. We don't have to go back very far in time to see the last one to surpass it, though - remember that time Toronto beat NYCFC 5-0 on the road in the playoffs last November?

Minnesota is now ranked dead last on Elo Rating, End of Season Points Predicted, and Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the change made a huge impact on the strength of West vs. East. The West's average of 1500.90 is the lowest it has been since April 20th, 2013.

Atlanta's outlook received quite a bit of boost due that game as well. They're now predicted to finish 3rd in the East and the Monte Carlo simulator has them at over a 80% chance to make the playoffs.

Three teams remain perfect through week 2: Portland, Houston, and San Jose from the West, and New York Red Bulls from the East.

Monday, March 6, 2017

March 5, 2017

The first week of the 2017 season is in the books, and the biggest winners are the New York Red Bulls, Dallas, Portland, and Houston. All four teams saw more than a 3.5 point increase in their predicted finish to the season. Dallas launches to the top of the Elo Ratings and Seattle slides down to 4th.

In the Monte Carlo simulator, the Red Bulls and Dallas are front-runners for the Supporters Shield and Seattle's chances took a massive hit.