April 6, 2014

Dallas and Toronto are the biggest winners of the week. Dallas' 4-1 road win over Houston vault them 37 rating points and up to third place in the western conference end of season predictions. Toronto's 2-0 road win over Columbus rewards them with 33 rating points. Last week, Toronto were 5.8 points behind Philadelphia in the predicted standings; their result cut that gap down to 0.2 points. They've now caught up with a large pack of teams that are predicted to be in the playoff hunt, which means another big result for Toronto will finally shoot them up the standings several places. This week they host the 5th highest ranked Colorado, which means another potential big move.

Another interesting development: Chivas and DC United. Despite the fact that Chivas has one more point on the season and a slightly higher Elo rating, DC are predicted to finish slightly above them. This is a direct result of the western conference being stronger than the eastern conference. Right now the west averages a rating of about 1528, while the east is around 1475.

Finally, Salt Lake's draw in Kansas City marginally increased the gap between the #1 and the #2 in the predicted standings; Salt Lake is now predicted as SS winner by 2.9 points.

On the Monte Carlo side of the numbers, Kansas City moves to the top as the team with the best average finishing position. As mentioned before, this is because the eastern conference is weaker than the western conference. Coupled with a faltering Houston team, Kansas City are looking to be an early lock for eastern #1. Despite Kansas City's higher modeled average finish, Salt Lake's Supperters Shield chances increased by taking the road point from the champions. On the other side of the table, Chivas look to be a lock for west #9.