Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Playoff Probabilities - 2013


Elo Ratings
# Team QF% SF% F% C%
Rtng Team (Change in Last Month)
E1 New York Red Bulls 100.0% 67.5% 37.5% 25.5%
1618   New York Red Bulls  (+37)
E2 Sporting Kansas City 100.0% 59.7% 32.3% 21.6%
1607   Sporting Kansas City  (+35)
W1 Portland Timbers 100.0% 57.6% 28.4% 12.6%
1589   Los Angeles Galaxy  (+16)
W3 Los Angeles Galaxy 100.0% 50.7% 27.6% 12.5%
1584   Real Salt Lake  (-3)
W2 Real Salt Lake 100.0% 49.3% 26.4% 11.8%
1581   Portland Timbers  (+28)
E3 New England Revolution 100.0% 40.3% 18.0% 5.9%
1567   San Jose Earthquakes  (+25)
W4 Seattle Sounders FC 58.3% 23.6% 9.4% 3.4%
1547   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (+50)
W5 Colorado Rapids 41.7% 18.8% 8.3% 3.3%
1546   Colorado Rapids  (+3)
E4 Houston Dynamo 69.4% 23.9% 9.5% 2.7%
1539   New England Revolution  (+55)
E5 Montreal Impact 30.6% 8.6% 2.8% 0.6%
1515   Chicago Fire  (+27)






1514   Seattle Sounders FC  (-100)






1506   Houston Dynamo  (-9)






1474   Columbus Crew  (-46)






1457   Philadelphia Union  (-23)






1456   FC Dallas  (+6)






1454   Montreal Impact  (-41)






1362   Toronto FC  (+5)






1292   Chivas USA  (-35)






1292   DC United  (-30)














West Average: 1519.55






East Average: 1482.4








Using my Elo Ratings, I can determine the expected value of a given match-up. I can then use Bayes' Theorem to determine all possible playoff match-ups and come up with an expected outcome of the playoffs as a whole. Above is the probability - given by my Elo Rater - that each team has to advance to a specific round of the playoffs. For instance, the numbers above say that Sporting Kansas City has a 100% chance to make it through the Wild Card (because they don't play one), a 59.7% chance to make it through the quarterfinal, a 32.3% chance to make it through the semifinal, and a 21.6% chance to win MLS Cup 2012. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Montreal has a 0.6% chance to win the playoffs.

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