MLS Playoff Probabilities Update (11/24/2013)

Real Salt Lake defeats the Portland Timbers to move on to MLS Cup 2013. RSL gain 24 rating points for the road win, and top the Elo Ratings once again. Despite having a slightly higher rating than Kansas City, they are the underdogs according to my numbers, due entirely to KC's home field advantage.

Elo Ratings		#	Team	C%
Rtng Team (Change in Last Month)		E2	Sporting Kansas City	60.1%
1640   Real Salt Lake  (+56)		W2	Real Salt Lake	39.9%
1621   Sporting Kansas City  (+14)
1588   New York Red Bulls  (-15)
1580   Los Angeles Galaxy  (-8)
1568   Portland Timbers  (-13)
1567   San Jose Earthquakes  (---)
1547   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (+23)
1543   Houston Dynamo  (+48)
1539   New England Revolution  (+18)
1522   Colorado Rapids  (-47)
1515   Chicago Fire  (-15)
1504   Seattle Sounders FC  (-11)
1473   Columbus Crew  (-18)
1458   Philadelphia Union  (---)
1456   FC Dallas  (---)
1433   Montreal Impact  (-21)
1362   Toronto FC  (---)
1292   Chivas USA  (---)
1292   DC United  (-11)
West Average: 1519.55
East Average: 1482.4

MLS Playoff Probabilities Update (11/23/2013)

Sporting Kansas City defeats the Houston Dynamo to secure the location of the 2013 MLS Cup Final. The result gives SKC a 12 point boost in the ratings. Another update to follow after tonight's result.

Elo Ratings		#	Team	F%	C%
Rtng Team (Change in Last Month)		E2	Sporting Kansas City	100.0%	63.9%
1621   Sporting Kansas City  (+28)		W2	Real Salt Lake	83.8%	30.7%
1616   Real Salt Lake  (+32)		W1	Portland Timbers	16.2%	5.4%
1592   Portland Timbers  (+30)
1588   New York Red Bulls  (-15)
1580   Los Angeles Galaxy  (-8)
1567   San Jose Earthquakes  (+8)
1547   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (+23)
1543   Houston Dynamo  (+48)
1539   New England Revolution  (+18)
1522   Colorado Rapids  (-47)
1515   Chicago Fire  (-15)
1504   Seattle Sounders FC  (-11)
1473   Columbus Crew  (-18)
1458   Philadelphia Union  (-14)
1456   FC Dallas  (-8)
1433   Montreal Impact  (-38)
1362   Toronto FC  (+17)
1292   Chivas USA  (-19)
1292   DC United  (-11)
West Average: 1519.55
East Average: 1482.4

Playoff Probabilities Update (11/10/2013)

Salt Lake wins the first leg 4-2, putting Portland in a very deep hole for the return leg. RSL now has an estimated 83.8% chance to win the series, and a 40.3% chance to win the cup. Portland's chances to win the cup sink to 7.3%. RSL also takes the lead in the Elo ratings, gaining 23 points with tonight's result.

MLS Cup Final Matchup Probabilities (Home v Away):

58.3% - Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake
25.5% - Real Salt Lake v Houston Dynamo
11.3% - Sporting Kansas City v Portland Timbers
04.9% - Portland Timbers v Houston Dynamo

Elo Ratings		#	Team	F%	C%
Rtng Team (Change in Last Month)		E2	Sporting Kansas City	69.6%	43.3%
1616   Real Salt Lake  (+38)		W2	Real Salt Lake	83.8%	40.3%
1609   Sporting Kansas City  (+19)		E4	Houston Dynamo	30.4%	9.1%
1592   Portland Timbers  (+38)		W1	Portland Timbers	16.2%	7.3%
1588   New York Red Bulls  (+14)
1580   Los Angeles Galaxy  (-6)
1567   San Jose Earthquakes  (+13)
1555   Houston Dynamo  (+31)
1547   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (+13)
1539   New England Revolution  (+48)
1522   Colorado Rapids  (-37)
1515   Chicago Fire  (+7)
1504   Seattle Sounders FC  (-44)
1473   Columbus Crew  (-29)
1458   Philadelphia Union  (-30)
1456   FC Dallas  (-3)
1433   Montreal Impact  (-52)
1362   Toronto FC  (+12)
1292   Chivas USA  (-22)
1292   DC United  (-10)
West Average: 1519.55
East Average: 1482.4

Playoff Probabilities Update (11/9/2013)

Houston and Kansas City draw at BBVA Compass Stadium. Kansas City now has home field advantage in the fixture. The result didn't do much to the Elo ratings - KC up 2, Houston down 2.

Kansas City's chance to make the final climbs to 69.6% and chance to win the cup climbs to 44%.  Houston are down to a 9.4%  chance to win the cup. Salt Lake-Portland tomorrow.

Elo Ratings		#	Team	F%	C%
Rtng Team (Change in Last Month)		E2	Sporting Kansas City	69.6%	44.0%
1615   Portland Timbers  (+61)		W1	Portland Timbers	53.2%	25.5%
1609   Sporting Kansas City  (+19)		W2	Real Salt Lake	46.8%	21.1%
1593   Real Salt Lake  (+15)		E4	Houston Dynamo	30.4%	9.4%
1588   New York Red Bulls  (+14)
1580   Los Angeles Galaxy  (-6)
1567   San Jose Earthquakes  (+13)
1555   Houston Dynamo  (+31)
1547   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (+13)
1539   New England Revolution  (+48)
1522   Colorado Rapids  (-37)
1515   Chicago Fire  (+7)
1504   Seattle Sounders FC  (-44)
1473   Columbus Crew  (-29)
1458   Philadelphia Union  (-30)
1456   FC Dallas  (-3)
1433   Montreal Impact  (-52)
1362   Toronto FC  (+12)
1292   Chivas USA  (-22)
1292   DC United  (-10)
West Average: 1519.55
East Average: 1482.4

Playoff Probabilities Update (11/7/2013)

Down to four. Portland jumps out in front of the Elo ratings with Kansas City hot on their heels. Real Salt Lake is third overall with a Houston retaining a very deceptive 1557 rating and 7th place overall (we all know what they can do in the post-season). Houston sitting so relatively low in the Elo ratings gives Kansas City a probably inflated chance of escaping from their Conference Semifinal confrontation (57.1%).

Kansas City currently has the advantage in the MLS Cup race according to my numbers, but every year I've done this there have been upsets - playoffs are incredibly hard to predict based on past results.

Elo Ratings		#	Team	F%	C%
Rtng Team (Change in Last Month)		E2	Sporting Kansas City	57.1%	36.0%
1615   Portland Timbers  (+61)		W1	Portland Timbers	53.2%	27.6%
1607   Sporting Kansas City  (+17)		W2	Real Salt Lake	46.8%	23.0%
1593   Real Salt Lake  (+15)		E4	Houston Dynamo	42.9%	13.4%
1588   New York Red Bulls  (+14)
1580   Los Angeles Galaxy  (-6)
1567   San Jose Earthquakes  (+13)
1557   Houston Dynamo  (+33)
1547   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (+13)
1539   New England Revolution  (+48)
1522   Colorado Rapids  (-37)
1515   Chicago Fire  (+7)
1504   Seattle Sounders FC  (-44)
1474   Columbus Crew  (-29)
1457   Philadelphia Union  (-30)
1456   FC Dallas  (-3)
1433   Montreal Impact  (-52)
1362   Toronto FC  (+12)
1292   Chivas USA  (-22)
1292   DC United  (-10)
West Average: 1519.55
East Average: 1482.4

Playoff Probabilities Update (11/3/2013)

Here are the playoff probabilities after the the first leg of the conference semifinal matches:

Elo Ratings		#	Team	SF%	CF%	F%	C%
Rtng Team (Change in Last Month)		E1	New York Red Bulls	100.0%	73.9%	42.1%	27.6%
1618   New York Red Bulls  (+44)		W1	Portland Timbers	100.0%	90.0%	46.4%	23.0%
1604   Portland Timbers  (+51)		W3	Los Angeles Galaxy	100.0%	68.8%	35.3%	17.5%
1604   Los Angeles Galaxy  (+31)		E2	Sporting Kansas City	100.0%	38.8%	19.1%	11.7%
1588   Sporting Kansas City  (-1)		E3	New England Revolution	100.0%	61.2%	27.4%	8.9%
1569   Real Salt Lake  (-9)		W2	Real Salt Lake	100.0%	31.2%	14.4%	6.5%
1567   San Jose Earthquakes  (+25)		E4	Houston Dynamo	100.0%	26.1%	11.4%	3.3%
1558   New England Revolution  (+67)		W4	Seattle Sounders FC	100.0%	10.0%	3.9%	1.5%
1547   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (+50)
1527   Houston Dynamo  (+2)
1522   Colorado Rapids  (-49)
1515   Seattle Sounders FC  (-71)
1515   Chicago Fire  (+7)
1474   Columbus Crew  (-29)
1457   Philadelphia Union  (-30)
1456   FC Dallas  (-3)
1433   Montreal Impact  (-52)
1362   Toronto FC  (+12)
1292   Chivas USA  (-35)
1292   DC United  (-10)
West Average: 1519.55
East Average: 1482.4

Playoff Probabilities Update

The wildcard matches are in the history books, here are the updated probabilities:

Elo Ratings		#	Team	SF%	CF%	F%	C%
Rtng Team (Change in Last Month)		E1	New York Red Bulls	100.0%	62.8%	34.8%	23.7%
1618   New York Red Bulls  (+37)		E2	Sporting Kansas City	100.0%	59.7%	31.7%	21.2%
1607   Sporting Kansas City  (+35)		W3	Los Angeles Galaxy	100.0%	50.7%	27.3%	12.6%
1589   Los Angeles Galaxy  (+16)		W1	Portland Timbers	100.0%	56.2%	27.6%	12.5%
1584   Real Salt Lake  (-3)		W2	Real Salt Lake	100.0%	49.3%	26.2%	11.9%
1581   Portland Timbers  (+28)		W4	Seattle Sounders FC	100.0%	43.8%	18.9%	7.5%
1567   San Jose Earthquakes  (+25)		E3	New England Revolution	100.0%	40.3%	17.6%	5.7%
1547   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (+50)		E4	Houston Dynamo	100.0%	37.2%	15.8%	4.9%
1539   New England Revolution  (+55)
1538   Seattle Sounders FC  (-76)
1527   Houston Dynamo  (+12)
1522   Colorado Rapids  (-21)
1515   Chicago Fire  (+27)
1474   Columbus Crew  (-46)
1457   Philadelphia Union  (-23)
1456   FC Dallas  (+6)
1433   Montreal Impact  (-62)
1362   Toronto FC  (+5)
1292   Chivas USA  (-35)
1292   DC United  (-30)
West Average: 1519.55
East Average: 1482.4