Playoff Probabilities - 2013

Elo Ratings		#	Team	QF%	SF%	F%	C%
Rtng Team (Change in Last Month)		E1	New York Red Bulls	100.0%	67.5%	37.5%	25.5%
1618   New York Red Bulls  (+37)		E2	Sporting Kansas City	100.0%	59.7%	32.3%	21.6%
1607   Sporting Kansas City  (+35)		W1	Portland Timbers	100.0%	57.6%	28.4%	12.6%
1589   Los Angeles Galaxy  (+16)		W3	Los Angeles Galaxy	100.0%	50.7%	27.6%	12.5%
1584   Real Salt Lake  (-3)		W2	Real Salt Lake	100.0%	49.3%	26.4%	11.8%
1581   Portland Timbers  (+28)		E3	New England Revolution	100.0%	40.3%	18.0%	5.9%
1567   San Jose Earthquakes  (+25)		W4	Seattle Sounders FC	58.3%	23.6%	9.4%	3.4%
1547   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (+50)		W5	Colorado Rapids	41.7%	18.8%	8.3%	3.3%
1546   Colorado Rapids  (+3)		E4	Houston Dynamo	69.4%	23.9%	9.5%	2.7%
1539   New England Revolution  (+55)		E5	Montreal Impact	30.6%	8.6%	2.8%	0.6%
1515   Chicago Fire  (+27)
1514   Seattle Sounders FC  (-100)
1506   Houston Dynamo  (-9)
1474   Columbus Crew  (-46)
1457   Philadelphia Union  (-23)
1456   FC Dallas  (+6)
1454   Montreal Impact  (-41)
1362   Toronto FC  (+5)
1292   Chivas USA  (-35)
1292   DC United  (-30)
West Average: 1519.55
East Average: 1482.4

Using my Elo Ratings, I can determine the expected value of a given match-up. I can then use Bayes' Theorem to determine all possible playoff match-ups and come up with an expected outcome of the playoffs as a whole. Above is the probability - given by my Elo Rater - that each team has to advance to a specific round of the playoffs. For instance, the numbers above say that Sporting Kansas City has a 100% chance to make it through the Wild Card (because they don't play one), a 59.7% chance to make it through the quarterfinal, a 32.3% chance to make it through the semifinal, and a 21.6% chance to win MLS Cup 2012. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Montreal has a 0.6% chance to win the playoffs.