Monday, April 16, 2012

4/15/2012


1641   Sporting Kansas City  (+9)
1620   Los Angeles Galaxy  (+8)
1616   Houston Dynamo  (---)
1615   Seattle Sounders FC  (+8)
1574   Real Salt Lake  (-9)
1564   New York Red Bulls  (-5)
1540   San Jose Earthquakes  (+5)
1527   Chicago Fire  (---)
1502   Colorado Rapids  (-8)
1483   FC Dallas  (+10)
1464   DC United  (+16)
1460   Columbus Crew  (-12)
1454   Philadelphia Union  (+12)
1443   Chivas USA  (+15)
1436   Montreal Impact  (-10)
1431   Portland Timbers  (-8)
1424   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (---)
1374   New England Revolution  (-16)
1332   Toronto FC  (-15)

West Average: 1514.66
East Average: 1486.8


Very fittingly, the Chicago vs. Houston game that had a 70 minute delay, was called at 66 minutes, and ended at 1-1 had a 0 point effect on Chicago and Houston's ratings. Not a lot of movement this week. Kansas City's predicted end of season point total is starting to rival the all time high (70 pts - 1998 LA Galaxy). We'll have to see if they can maintain this form.


Team Pts Pred
Sporting Kansas City 18 69.505
Houston Dynamo 7 61.626
Seattle Sounders FC 10 58.943
Real Salt Lake 15 57.973
Los Angeles Galaxy 6 55.616
New York Red Bulls 10 54.250
San Jose Earthquakes 13 53.680
Chicago Fire 5 49.039
Colorado Rapids 9 47.452
FC Dallas 10 44.954
DC United 8 44.578
Columbus Crew 6 42.676
Chivas USA 9 40.984
Philadelphia Union 4 39.397
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 8 39.160
Montreal Impact 4 36.183
Portland Timbers 4 34.777
New England Revolution 6 34.362
Toronto FC 0 24.710

Saturday, April 14, 2012

4/7/2012


1632   Sporting Kansas City  (+11)
1616   Houston Dynamo  (---)
1612   Los Angeles Galaxy  (-11)
1607   Seattle Sounders FC  (-3)
1583   Real Salt Lake  (+20)
1569   New York Red Bulls  (+30)
1527   Chicago Fire  (---)
1535   San Jose Earthquakes  (+11)
1510   Colorado Rapids  (-13)
1473   FC Dallas  (+9)
1472   Columbus Crew  (-30)
1439   Portland Timbers  (-21)
1446   Montreal Impact  (+1)
1448   DC United  (+3)
1442   Philadelphia Union  (---)
1424   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (-11)
1428   Chivas USA  (+21)
1390   New England Revolution  (-9)
1347   Toronto FC  (-8)

West Average: 1512.33
East Average: 1488.9

This week's Elo ratings are the first week LA finally slips from number one. Despite starting the season with 1690, three losses in four games have seen their rating drop by 78 points. While their ranking amongst other teams is still not indicative of their current form, we can look at overall increases/decreases since the beginning of the season to see where teams are at compared to their end of 2011 form:


59  Real Salt Lake 
56  San Jose Earthquakes
48  Sporting Kansas City
40  New York Red Bulls 
33  New England Revolution
14  DC United
10  Colorado Rapids
  7  Houston Dynamo
  7  Vancouver Whitecaps FC
  5  Chivas USA
 -2  Chicago Fire
 -3  Seattle Sounders FC
-13  FC Dallas
-15  Columbus Crew
-32  Montreal Impact
-34  Portland Timbers
-46  Philadelphia Union
-56  Toronto FC
-78  Los Angeles Galaxy
 
Here we can immediately see that Real Salt Lake and San Jose have so far performed better than their end of season 2011 form indicated, while Toronto and Los Angeles have tanked compared to where ther were (go CCL teams!). It's important to remember here that it is easier for teams with higher ratings to lose points and it is easier for teams for lower ratings to gain points. That is why, despite having a worse record, Toronto has lost fewer points than LA. Likewise, that's why, despite having a better record, Kansas City hasn't gained as many points as San Jose or Real Salt Lake.

One other thing we can look at is a prediction of how many points a team will end the season with. Recall that when we calculate the rating change after a game, we use the expected outcome of a particular match-up. In much the same way, we can use the current ratings and the schedule for the rest of the year to calculate the expected number of points a team will get from each of their remaining games. We then add that to their current point total, and we get an end of the season estimate.


Team Pts Pred
Sporting Kansas City 15 67.139
Houston Dynamo 6 61.847
Real Salt Lake 15 59.900
Seattle Sounders FC 7 57.212
New York Red Bulls 9 55.494
Los Angeles Galaxy 3 54.193
San Jose Earthquakes 12 53.410
Chicago Fire 4 49.211
Colorado Rapids 9 49.142
Columbus Crew 6 44.936
FC Dallas 7 42.923
DC United 5 41.098
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 8 39.174
Chivas USA 6 38.142
Montreal Impact 4 37.961
New England Revolution 6 36.968
Philadelphia Union 1 36.729
Portland Timbers 4 36.173
Toronto FC 0 27.195







Despite the relatively poor predictability that only four or five games have on the outcome of the entire season, these numbers look pretty good to me. Take for instance, Los Angeles. LA has led off to a disappointing start, yet everyone recognizes that LA has a strong, talented team that will most likely rebound and make the playoffs. While they may not be the third best team in the league right now (as the actual Elo rating suggests) their current rating does help predict a reasonable estimate for where LA may end up at the end of the season.

Monday, April 2, 2012

4/1/2012


1623   Los Angeles Galaxy  (-38)
1621   Sporting Kansas City  (+11)
1616   Houston Dynamo  (---)
1610   Seattle Sounders FC  (-24)
1563   Real Salt Lake  (+16)
1539   New York Red Bulls  (+15)
1527   Chicago Fire  (-12)
1524   San Jose Earthquakes  (+24)
1523   Colorado Rapids  (+12)
1502   Columbus Crew  (+14)
1464   FC Dallas  (-24)
1460   Portland Timbers  (-16)
1445   Montreal Impact  (-15)
1445   DC United  (+24)
1442   Philadelphia Union  (-4)
1435   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (+4)
1407   Chivas USA  (-11)
1399   New England Revolution  (+38)
1355   Toronto FC  (-14)

West Average: 1512.11
East Average:  1489.10

Sunday, March 25, 2012

3/25/2012


1661   Los Angeles Galaxy  (---)
1634   Seattle Sounders FC  (+17)
1616   Houston Dynamo  (-17)
1610   Sporting Kansas City  (+7)
1547   Real Salt Lake  (-25)
1539   Chicago Fire  (+8)
1524   New York Red Bulls  (+21)
1511   Colorado Rapids  (-21)
1500   San Jose Earthquakes  (+27)
1488   FC Dallas  (-7)
1488   Columbus Crew  (+16)
1476   Portland Timbers  (-18)
1460   Montreal Impact  (-16)
1446   Philadelphia Union  (-8)
1431   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (-5)
1421   DC United  (+5)
1418   Chivas USA  (+25)
1369   Toronto FC  (-27)
1361   New England Revolution  (+18)

West Average: 1518.44
East Average:  1483.40

Sunday, March 18, 2012

As of 3/18/2012


1661   Los Angeles Galaxy  (+6)
1633   Houston Dynamo  (+13)
1617   Seattle Sounders FC  (+7)
1603   Sporting Kansas City  (+7)
1572   Real Salt Lake  (+13)
1532   Colorado Rapids  (+17)
1531   Chicago Fire  (+2)
1503   New York Red Bulls  (-13)
1495   FC Dallas  (-4)
1494   Portland Timbers  (+4)
1476   Montreal Impact  (-2)
1473   San Jose Earthquakes  (-13)
1472   Columbus Crew  (---)
1454   Philadelphia Union  (-17)
1436   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (+19)
1416   DC United  (-6)
1396   Toronto FC  (-7)
1393   Chivas USA  (-19)
1343   New England Revolution  (-7)

West Average: 1519.22
East Average: 1482.70

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

All-Time Playoff Records

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHICAGO FIRE (CHI)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
1998 -     COL LAG DCU
1999 -     dal --- ---
2000 -     NER NYR skc
2001 -     DAL lag ---
2002 -     ner --- ---
2003 -     DCU NER sje
2004 -     --- --- ---
2005 -     DCU ner ---
2006 -     ner --- ---
2007 -     DCU ner ---
2008 -     NER clb ---
2009 -     NER rsl ---
2010 -     --- --- ---
2011 - --- --- --- ---

Colorado      1-0 (W 1998)
Los Angeles   1-1 (W 1998, L 2001)
DC            4-0 (W 1998, W 2003, W 2005, W 2007)
Dallas        1-1 (L 1999, W 2001)
New England   4-4 (W 2000, L 2002, W 2003, L 2005, L 2006, L 2007, W 2008, W 2009)
New York      1-0 (W 2000)
Kansas City   0-1 (L 2000)
San Jose      0-1 (L 2003)
Columbus      0-1 (L 2008)
Salt Lake     0-1 (L 2009)

MLS Cup Final 1-2
Semifinals    3-5
Quarterfinals 8-3
Wildcards     0-0

OVERALL       12-10

Playoffs      11 of 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHIVAS USA (CHV)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
2005 -     --- --- ---
2006 -     hou --- ---
2007 -     skc --- ---
2008 -     rsl --- ---
2009 -     lag --- ---
2010 -     --- --- ---
2011 - --- --- --- ---

Houston       0-1 (L 2006)
Kansas City   0-1 (L 2007)
Salt Lake     0-1 (L 2008)
Los Angeles   0-1 (L 2009)

MLS Cup Final 0-0
Semifinals    0-0
Quarterfinals 0-4
Wildcards     0-0

OVERALL       0-4

Playoffs      4 of 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO RAPIDS (COL)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
1996 -     --- --- ---
1997 -     SKC DAL dcu
1998 -     chi --- ---
1999 -     lag --- ---
2000 -     skc --- ---
2001 -     --- --- ---
2002 -     DAL lag ---
2003 -     skc --- ---
2004 -     lag --- ---
2005 -     DAL lag ---
2006 -     DAL hou ---
2007 -     --- --- ---
2008 -     --- --- ---
2009 -     --- --- ---
2010 -     CLB SJE DAL
2011 - CLB skc --- ---

Kansas City   1-3 (W 1997, L 2000, L 2003, L 2011)
Dallas        5-0 (W 1997, W 2002, W 2005, W 2006, W 2010)
DC            0-1 (L 1997)
Chicago       0-1 (L 1998)
Los Angeles   0-4 (L 1999, L 2002, L 2004, L 2005)
Houston       0-1 (L 2006)
Columbus      2-0 (W 2010, W 2011)
San Jose      1-0 (W 2010)

MLS Cup Final 1-1
Semifinals    2-3
Quarterfinals 5-6
Wildcards     1-0

OVERALL       9-10

Playoffs      11 of 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLUMBUS CREW (CLB)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
1996 -     tbm --- ---
1997 -     TBM dcu ---
1998 -     NYR dcu ---
1999 -     TBM dcu ---
2000 -     --- --- ---
2001 -     sje --- ---
2002 -     SJE ner ---
2003 -     --- --- ---
2004 -     ner --- ---
2005 -     --- --- ---
2006 -     --- --- ---
2007 -     --- --- ---
2008 -     SKC CHI NYR
2009 -     rsl --- ---
2010 -     col --- ---
2011 - col --- --- ---

Tampa Bay     2-1 (L 1996, W 1997, W 1999)
DC            0-3 (L 1997, L 1998, L 1999)
New York      2-0 (W 1998, W 2008)
San Jose      1-1 (L 2001, W 2002)
New England   0-2 (L 2002, L 2004)
Kansas City   1-0 (W 2008)
Chicago       1-0 (W 2008)
Salt Lake     0-1 (L 2009)
Colorado      0-2 (L 2010, L 2011)

MLS Cup Final 1-0
Semifinals    1-4
Quarterfinals 5-5
Wildcards     0-1

OVERALL       7-10

Playoffs      11 of 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DC UNITED (DCU)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
1996 -     NYR TBM LAG
1997 -     NER CLB COL
1998 -     MIA CLB chi
1999 -     MIA CLB LAG
2000 -     --- --- ---
2001 -     --- --- ---
2002 -     --- --- ---
2003 -     chi --- ---
2004 -     NYR NER SKC
2005 -     chi --- ---
2006 -     NYR ner ---
2007 -     chi --- ---
2008 -     --- --- ---
2009 -     --- --- ---
2010 -     --- --- ---
2011 - --- --- --- ---

New York      3-0 (W 1996, W 2004, W 2006)
Tampa Bay     1-0 (W 1996)
Los Angeles   2-0 (W 1996, W 1999)
New England   2-1 (W 1997, W 2004, L 2006)
Columbus      3-0 (W 1997, W 1998, W 1999)
Colorado      1-0 (W 1997)
Miami         2-0 (W 1998, W 1999)
Chicago       0-4 (L 1998, L 2003, L 2005, L 2007)
Kansas City   1-0 (W 2004)

MLS Cup Final 4-1
Semifinals    5-1
Quarterfinals 6-3
Wildcards     0-0

OVERALL       15-5

Playoffs      9 of 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FC DALLAS (DAL)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
1996 -     skc --- ---
1997 -     LAG col ---
1998 -     lag --- ---
1999 -     CHI lag ---
2000 -     nyr --- ---
2001 -     chi --- ---
2002 -     col --- ---
2003 -     --- --- ---
2004 -     --- --- ---
2005 -     col --- ---
2006 -     col --- ---
2007 -     hou --- ---
2008 -     --- --- ---
2009 -     --- --- ---
2010 -     RSL LAG col
2011 - nyr --- --- ---

Kansas City   0-1 (L 1996)
Los Angeles   2-2 (W 1997, L 1998, L 1999, W 2010)
Colorado      0-5 (L 1997, L 2002, L 2005, L 2006, L 2010)
Chicago       1-1 (W 1999, L 2001)
New York      0-2 (L 2000, L 2011)
Houston       0-1 (L 2007)
Salt Lake     1-0 (W 2010)

MLS Cup Final 0-1
Semifinals    1-2
Quarterfinals 3-8
Wildcards     0-1

OVERALL       4-12

Playoffs      12 of 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOUSTON DYNAMO (HOU)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
2006 -     CHV COL NER
2007 -     DAL SKC NER
2008 -     nyr --- ---
2009 -     SEA lag ---
2010 -     --- --- ---
2011 - --- PHI SKC lag

Chivas        1-0 (W 2006)
COlorado      1-0 (W 2006)
New England   2-0 (W 2006, W 2007)
Dallas        1-0 (W 2007)
Kansas City   2-0 (W 2007, W 2011)
New York      0-1 (L 2008)
Seattle       1-0 (W 2009)
Los Angeles   0-2 (L 2009, L 2011)
Philadelphia  1-0 (W 2011)

MLS Cup Final 2-1
Semifinals    3-1
Quarterfinals 4-1
Wildcards     0-0

OVERALL       9-3

Playoffs      5 of 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOS ANGELES GALAXY (LAG)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
1996 -     SJE SKC dcu
1997 -     dal --- ---
1998 -     DAL chi ---
1999 -     COL DAL dcu
2000 -     TBM skc ---
2001 -     NYR CHI sje
2002 -     SKC COL NER
2003 -     sje --- ---
2004 -     COL skc ---
2005 -     SJE COL NER
2006 -     --- --- ---
2007 -     --- --- ---
2008 -     --- --- ---
2009 -     CHV HOU rsl
2010 -     SEA fcd ---
2011 - --- NYR RSL HOU

San Jose      2-2 (W 1996, L 2001, L 2003, W 2005)
Kansas City   2-2 (W 1996, L 2000, W 2002, L 2004)
DC            0-2 (L 1996, L 1999)
Dallas        2-2 (L 1997, W 1998, W 1999, L 2010)
Chicago       1-1 (L 1998, W 2001)
Colorado      4-0 (W 1999, W 2002, W 2004, W 2005)
Tampa Bay     1-0 (W 2000)
New York      2-0 (W 2001, W 2011)
New England   2-0 (W 2002, W 2005)
Chivas        1-0 (W 2009)
Houston       2-0 (W 2009, L 2011)
Salt Lake     1-1 (L 2009, W 2011)
Seattle       1-0 (W 2010)

MLS Cup Final 3-4
Semifinals    7-4
Quarterfinals 11-2
Wildcards     0-0

OVERALL       21-10

Playoffs      13 of 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIAMI FUSION (MIA)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
1998 -     dcu --- ---
1999 -     dcu --- ---
2000 -     --- --- ---
2001 -     SKC sje ---

DC            0-2 (L 1998, L 1999)
Kansas City   1-0 (W 2001)
San Jose      0-1 (L 2001)

MLS Cup Final 0-0
Semifinals    0-1
Quarterfinals 1-2
Wildcards     0-0

OVERALL       1-3

Playoffs      3 of 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION (NER)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
1996 -     --- --- ---
1997 -     dcu --- ---
1998 -     --- --- ---
1999 -     --- --- ---
2000 -     chi --- ---
2001 -     --- --- ---
2002 -     CHI CLB lag
2003 -     NYR chi ---
2004 -     CLB dcu ---
2005 -     NYR CHI lag
2006 -     CHI DCU hou
2007 -     NYR CHI hou
2008 -     chi --- ---
2009 -     chi --- ---
2010 -     --- --- ---
2011 - --- --- --- ---

DC            1-2 (L 1997, L 2004, W 2006)
Chicago       4-4 (L 2000, W 2002, L 2003, W 2005, W 2006, W 2007, L 2008, L 2009)
Columbus      2-0 (W 2002, W 2004)
Los Angeles   0-2 (L 2002, L 2005)
New York      3-0 (W 2003, W 2005, W 2007)
Houston       0-2 (L 2006, L 2007)

MLS Cup Final 0-4
Semifinals    4-2
Quarterfinals 6-4
Wildcards     0-0

OVERALL       10-10

Playoffs      10 of 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW YORK RED BULLS (NYR)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
1996 -     dcu --- ---
1997 -     --- --- ---
1998 -     clb --- ---
1999 -     --- --- ---
2000 -     DAL chi ---
2001 -     lag --- ---
2002 -     --- --- ---
2003 -     ner --- ---
2004 -     dcu --- ---
2005 -     ner --- ---
2006 -     dcu --- ---
2007 -     ner --- ---
2008 -     HOU RSL clb
2009 -     --- --- ---
2010 -     sje --- ---
2011 - DAL lag --- ---

DC            0-3 (L 1996, L 2004, L 2006)
Columbus      0-2 (L 1998, L 2008)
Dallas        2-0 (W 2000, W 2011)
Chicago       0-1 (L 2000)
Los Angeles   0-2 (L 2001, L 2011)
New England   0-3 (L 2003, L 2005, L 2007)
Houston       1-0 (W 2008)
Salt Lake     1-0 (W 2008)
San Jose      0-1 (L 2010)

MLS Cup Final 0-1
Semifinals    1-1
Quarterfinals 2-10
Wildcards     1-0

OVERALL       4-12

Playoffs      12 of 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PHILADELPHIA UNION (PHI)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
2010 -     --- --- ---
2011 - --- hou --- ---

Houston       0-1 (L 2011)

MLS Cup Final 0-0
Semifinals    0-0
Quarterfinals 0-1
Wildcards     0-0

OVERALL       0-1

Playoffs      1 of 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PORTLAND TIMBERS (POR)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
2011 - --- --- --- ---

MLS Cup Final 0-0
Semifinals    0-0
Quarterfinals 0-0
Wildcards     0-0

OVERALL       0-0

Playoffs      0 of 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REAL SALT LAKE (RSL)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
2005 -     --- --- ---
2006 -     --- --- ---
2007 -     --- --- ---
2008 -     CHV nyr ---
2009 -     CLB CHI LAG
2010 -     fcd --- ---
2011 - --- SEA lag ---

Chivas        1-0 (W 2008)
New York      0-1 (L 2008)
Columbus      1-0 (W 2009)
Chicago       1-0 (W 2009)
Los Angeles   1-1 (W 2009, L 2011)
Dallas        0-1 (L 2010)
Seattle       1-0 (W 2011)

MLS Cup Final 1-0
Semifinals    1-2
Quarterfinals 3-1
Wildcards     0-0

OVERALL       5-3

Playoffs      4 of 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (SJE)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
1996 -     lag --- ---
1997 -     --- --- ---
1998 -     --- --- ---
1999 -     --- --- ---
2000 -     --- --- ---
2001 -     CLB MIA LAG
2002 -     clb --- ---
2003 -     LAG SKC CHI
2004 -     skc --- ---
2005 -     lag --- ---


2008 -     --- --- ---
2009 -     --- --- ---
2010 -     NYR col ---
2011 - --- --- --- ---

Los Angeles   2-2 (L 1996, W 2001, W 2003, L 2005)
Columbus      1-1 (W 2001, L 2002)
Miami         1-0 (W 2001)
Kansas City   1-1 (W 2003, L 2004)
Chicago       1-0 (W 2003)
New York      1-0 (W 2010)
Colorado      0-1 (L 2010)

MLS Cup Final 2-0
Semifinals    2-1
Quarterfinals 3-4
Wildcards     0-0

OVERALL       7-5

Playoffs      7 of 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEATTLE SOUNDERS FC (SEA)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
2009 -     hou --- ---
2010 -     lag --- ---
2011 - --- rsl --- ---

Houston       0-1 (L 2009)
Los Angeles   0-1 (L 2010)
Salt Lake     0-1 (L 2011)

MLS Cup Final 0-0
Semifinals    0-0
Quarterfinals 0-3
Wildcards     0-0

OVERALL       0-3

Playoffs      3 of 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPORTING KANSAS CITY (SKC)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
1996 -     DAL lag ---
1997 -     col --- ---
1998 -     --- --- ---
1999 -     --- --- ---
2000 -     COL LAG CHI
2001 -     mia --- ---
2002 -     lag --- ---
2003 -     COL sje ---
2004 -     SJE LAG dcu
2005 -     --- --- ---
2006 -     --- --- ---
2007 -     CHV hou ---
2008 -     clb --- ---
2009 -     --- --- ---
2010 -     --- --- ---
2011 - --- COL hou ---

Dallas      1-0 (W 1996)
Los Angeles 2-2 (L 1996, W 2000, L 2002, W 2004)
Colorado    3-1 (L 1997, W 2000, W 2003, W 2011)
Chicago     1-0 (W 2000)
Miami       0-1 (L 2001)
San Jose    1-1 (L 2003, W 2004)
DC          0-1 (L 2004)
Chivas      1-0 (W 2007)
Houston     0-2 (L 2007, L 2011)
Columbus    0-1 (L 2008)

MLS Cup Final 1-1
Semifinals    2-4
Quarterfinals 6-4
Wildcards     0-0
OVERALL       9-9

Playoffs      10 of 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TAMPA BAY MUTINY (TBM)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
1996 -     CLB dcu ---
1997 -     clb --- ---
1998 -     --- --- ---
1999 -     clb --- ---
2000 -     lag --- ---
2001 -     --- --- ---

Columbus      1-2 (W 1996, L 1997, L 1999)
DC            0-1 (L 1996)
Los Angeles   0-1 (L 2000)

MLS Cup Final 0-0
Semifinals    0-1
Quarterfinals 1-3
Wildcards     0-0
OVERALL       1-4

Playoffs      4 of 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORONTO FC (TOR)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
2007 -     --- --- ---
2008 -     --- --- ---
2009 -     --- --- ---
2010 -     --- --- ---
2011 - --- --- --- ---

MLS Cup Final 0-0
Semifinals    0-0
Quarterfinals 0-0
Wildcards     0-0
OVERALL       0-0

Playoffs      0 of 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS FC (VAN)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       WC  QF  SF  CUP
2011 - --- --- --- ---

MLS Cup Final 0-0
Semifinals    0-0
Quarterfinals 0-0
Wildcards     0-0

OVERALL       0-0

Playoffs      0 of 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HEAD-TO-HEAD RESULTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CHI CHV COL CLB DCU DAL HOU LAG MIA NER NYR PHI POR RSL SJE SEA SKC TBM TOR VAN
CHI --- 0-0 1-0 0-1 4-0 1-1 0-0 1-1 0-0 4-4 1-0 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0
CHV 0-0 --- 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0
COL 0-1 0-0 --- 2-0 0-1 5-0 0-1 0-4 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0 0-0 1-3 0-0 0-0 0-0
CLB 1-0 0-0 0-2 --- 0-3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-2 2-0 0-0 0-0 0-1 1-1 0-0 1-0 2-1 0-0 0-0
DCU 0-4 0-0 1-0 3-0 --- 0-0 0-0 2-0 2-0 2-1 3-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0 1-0 0-0 0-0
DAL 1-1 0-0 0-5 0-0 0-0 --- 0-1 2-2 0-0 0-0 0-2 0-0 0-0 1-0 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0
HOU 0-0 1-0 1-0 0-0 0-0 1-0 --- 0-1 0-0 2-0 0-1 1-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0 2-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
LAG 1-1 1-0 4-0 0-0 0-2 2-2 1-0 --- 0-0 2-0 2-0 0-0 0-0 1-1 2-2 1-0 2-2 1-0 0-0 0-0
MIA 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-2 0-0 0-0 0-0 --- 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-0 1-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
NER 4-4 0-0 0-0 2-0 1-2 0-0 0-2 0-2 0-0 --- 3-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
NYR 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-2 0-3 2-0 1-0 0-2 0-0 0-3 --- 0-0 0-0 1-0 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
PHI 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 --- 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
POR 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 --- 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
RSL 1-0 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-0 1-1 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-0 --- 0-0 1-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
SJE 1-0 0-0 0-1 1-1 0-0 0-0 0-0 2-2 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 --- 0-0 1-1 0-0 0-0 0-0
SEA 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-0 --- 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
SKC 1-0 1-0 3-1 0-1 0-1 1-0 0-2 2-2 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-1 0-0 --- 0-0 0-0 0-0
TBM 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-2 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 --- 0-0 0-0
TOR 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 --- 0-0
VAN 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 ---

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PLAYOFF RECORD SUMMARY
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      ALL   WC    QF    SF   CUP  Playoffs  PP-EPP
HOU   9-2   0-0   4-1   3-1  2-1   5 of  6  +1.589
LAG  20-10  0-0  11-2   7-4  3-4  13 of 16  +0.954
RSL   5-3   0-0   3-1   1-2  1-0   4 of  7  +0.410
DCU  15-5   0-0   6-3   5-1  4-1   9 of 16  +0.384
CHI  12-10  0-0   8-3   3-5  1-2  11 of 14  +0.250
COL   9-10  1-0   5-6   2-3  1-1  11 of 16  -0.035
SJE   7-5   0-0   3-4   2-1  2-0   7 of 14  -0.107
SKC   9-9   0-0   6-4   2-4  1-1  10 of 16  -0.121
NER  10-10  0-0   6-4   4-2  0-4  10 of 16  -0.128
CLB   7-10  0-1   5-5   1-4  1-0  11 of 16  -0.136
SEA   0-3   0-0   0-3   0-0  0-0   3 of  3  -0.206
DAL   4-12  0-1   3-8   1-2  0-1  12 of 16  -0.330
NYR   4-12  1-0   2-10  1-1  0-1  12 of 16  -0.364
MIA   1-3   0-0   1-2   0-1  0-0   3 of  4  -0.400
TBM   1-4   0-0   1-3   0-1  0-0   4 of  6  -0.550
PHI   0-1   0-0   0-1   0-0  0-0   1 of  2  -0.583
CHV   0-4   0-0   0-4   0-0  0-0   4 of  7  -0.614
POR   0-0   0-0   0-0   0-0  0-0   0 of  1  -1.000
VAN   0-0   0-0   0-0   0-0  0-0   0 of  1  -1.000
TOR   0-0   0-0   0-0   0-0  0-0   0 of  5  -1.000

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REMARKS
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All records are on a series basis, not a per game basis. The series structures/rules at the time of the competition are not taken into consideration in the statistics here.

Los Angeles has the most playoff series wins with 21.
Los Angeles have made the playoffs the greatest number of times (13).
Los Angeles has the record for consecutive playoff appearances (10).
Los Angeles are 11-2 in quarterfinal series.
Colorado is 5-0 against Dallas in playoff series.
Los Angeles is 4-0 against Colorado in playoff series.
Chicago is 4-0 against DC United in playoff series.
Houston has only lost three playoff series ever.
DC United and San Jose are tied with missing the playoffs the greatest number of times (7).
Seattle are the only team to make it to the playoffs every year of their existence.

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PP-EPP EXPLANATION
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PP-EPP is Playoff Performance Minus Expected Playoff Performance. It is a statistic I created to gauge the overall performance of a team in the post-season. To get an idea of how it works, imagine a league with ten equally skilled teams that has a eight team playoff post-season that runs for exactly ten years. Under this system, you would expect any given team to make it to the playoffs eight times, make it to the semifinals four times, make it to the final twice, and win the playoffs once. If a team from this league had these exact results from ten years of experience, their PP-EPP would be 0.00, since their actual performance and the expected performance were exactly equal. However, if a team made it to the final every year, they would have a positive PP-EPP and if they never made the playoffs at all, they would have a negative PP-EPP. Furthermore, since the playoff structure is single elimination, we can assume that making it to the quarterfinals is twice as likely as making it to the semifinals, which is twice as likely as making it to the finals, which is twice as likely as winning the final. One other thing we need to consider is the number of teams in a given season. In a ten team league, it is much easier to make an eight team playoff than it is in a 16 team league. Likewise, winning MLS Cup against 15 other clubs is worth more than winning MLS Cup against 9 other clubs. So we need to take this into consideration when we create our expected values. Now I'll show you how I go about calculating these numbers.

In 1996, there are 10 teams and 8 playoff spots. We need to allocate points to all teams based on playoff finish. Let X be the number of points we allocate to the MLS Cup Winner. Then the runner up gets X/2 points, the semifinalists get X/4 points each, the quarterfinalists get X/8 points each, and the teams that did not make the playoffs get 0 points. We then want to "normalize" these point values so that their average (or expected value) is 1. So we set up the following equation:

[X + X/2 + 2(X/4) + 4(X/8)] / 10 = 1

Solving, we get:

X + X/2 + X/2 + X/2 = 10  =>  (5/2)X = 10  =>  X = 4.

So for 1996, (and 1997, 2002, 2003, and 2004 - since they had the same number of teams), winning the playoffs gets you 4 points, being runner-up gets you 2 points, being a semi-finalist gets you 1 point, and being a quarterfinalist gets you 0.5 points. To see how this changes with the total number of teams, suppose we have 16 teams (as in 2010). Solving our equation again we get (5/2)X = 16  =>  X = 6.4. So then the champion gets 6.4 points, the runner-up gets 3.2 points, the semifinalists get 1.6 points, and the quarterfinalists gets 0.8 points.

In 2011, it becomes a little more rigorous because we have to deal with 10 teams in the playoffs. We can't say that a team is twice as likely to be a wildcard than a quarterfinalist, because there are only two wildcard losers. We set up our equation to note that there are 10 teams that make the playoffs (i.e. X/10) and that two teams will lose the wildcard matches (i.e. 2(x/10)). So we get:

[X + X/2 + 2(X/4) + 4(X/8) + 2(X/10)] / 18 = 1  =>  (27/10)X = 18  =>  X = 20/3.

So a quarterfinalist will receive 5/6 points, and a wildcard loser will receive 2/3 points.

A summary of points allocated per year is in the following table:

                1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Champion        4.00 4.00 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.80 4.80 5.20 5.60 6.00 6.40 6.67 
Runner-Up       2.00 2.00 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.40 2.40 2.60 2.80 3.00 3.20 3.33
Semifinalist    1.00 1.00 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.20 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.67
Quarterfinalist 0.50 0.50 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.60 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.83
Wildcard                                                                                   0.67

Remember that we "normalized" every year so that the average (or expected value) is one for every year, so the overall expected value is one as well. Points earned in all years are then added up for each team and divided by the number of years that team has been in the league. Finally, our expected value (one) is subtracted. For example, Miami Fusion made it to the quarterfinals in 1998 and 1999, failed to make the playoffs in 2000, and made it to the semifinals in 2001. The point values for those years are 0.60, 0.60, 0.00, and 1.20. So Miami's PP-EPP is [0.60 + 0.60 + 0.00 + 1.20] / 4 - 1  =  -0.400. If a team has never made the playoffs, their performance is 0, and their PP-EPP is 0 - 1 = -1.000. The PP-EPP for each team is in the final column of the PLAYOFF RECORD SUMMARY exhibit.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

As of 3/12/2012


1655   Los Angeles Galaxy  (-35)
1620   Houston Dynamo  (+11)
1610   Seattle Sounders FC  (---)
1596   Sporting Kansas City  (+12)
1559   Real Salt Lake  (+35)
1529   Chicago Fire  (---)
1516   New York Red Bulls  (-13)
1515   Colorado Rapids  (+15)
1499   FC Dallas  (+13)
1490   Portland Timbers  (+17)
1486   San Jose Earthquakes  (+7)
1478   Montreal Impact  (-22)
1472   Columbus Crew  (-15)
1471   Philadelphia Union  (-17)
1422   DC United  (-12)
1417   Vancouver Whitecaps FC  (+22)
1412   Chivas USA  (-11)
1403   Toronto FC  (---)
1350   New England Revolution  (-7)

West Average: 1515.89
East Average: 1485.70