March 20, 2016

This week's biggest movers are Philadelphia and Vancouver with 22 and 21 points respectively. Portland remains at the top of the Points Predicted despite losing to San Jose on the road. Seattle continues to plummet in the standings; they are looking at -57 points on the year through week three. Still perfect Kansas City have climbed the most, with +41 on the year.

While the End of Season Points Prediction still have Portland in the lead, the Monte Carlo simulation shows Montreal are slightly favored - although neither team have incredible chances yet, just 18% and 16% as of right now.

March 13, 2016

After a weekend of several surprise results, there is a lot of movement in the power ratings. Unsurprisingly, Houston is the biggest beneficiary after dolling out the 5-0 harshness to Dallas - a result that earned them 39 points in the ratings, and +6.852 in their end of season points prediction. Other large positive moves were made by Philadelphia (+22 / + 5.030), Montreal (+21 / +4.156) and San Jose (+17 / +4.122).

Portland still retains its lead for the Supporters Shield run in terms of points prediction, but their lead has been narrowed from a runaway 9.2 points, to a mere 3.3 points. That race is only just beginning, of course.

Looking forward to next week's fixtures, Portland vs Salt Lake is the most lop-sided match with Portland expecting 2.26 points from that game, while Philadelphia vs New England is the closest to a coinflip.

March 6, 2016

Well it's been almost a year and a half since I've updated my blog. Fortunately, I have kept up with the Elo Rater itself. It just got to be a hassle to update the rater then update the blog afterward, so the blog part got dropped off midway through 2014 and I was too lazy to ever pick it back up. This season I decided to give it another go. We'll see how long I stick with it.

Anywho, Week 1 of 2016 is in the books, and I've spit out some data. As always, my Elo Ratings carry over from the prior year, which is why Portland is on top and Chicago are bottom. Remarkably, the Monte Carlo estimation is showing that Chicago don't even have a chance at the Supporters Shield right now. They won't crack that board until they get a win. Or maybe a few.

Year End 2015

Year End 2015

Rtg	Team
1644	Portland Timbers
1608	New York Red Bulls
1581	FC Dallas
1575	Seattle Sounders FC
1538	Montreal Impact
1536	Columbus Crew
1531	Los Angeles Galaxy
1510	San Jose Earthquakes
1507	New England Revolution
1500	Sporting Kansas City
1497	Vancouver Whitecaps FC
1483	Orlando City SC
1473	Real Salt Lake
1468	DC United
1452	Philadelphia Union
1444	Houston Dynamo
1439	New York City FC
1433	Toronto FC
1411	Colorado Rapids
1370	Chicago Fire

West Average: 1516.60

East Average: 1483.40

Year End 2014

Year End 2014

Rtg	Team
1674	Los Angeles Galaxy
1608	New England Revolution
1608	Seattle Sounders FC
1595	Portland Timbers
1573	FC Dallas
1560	New York Red Bulls
1559	Real Salt Lake
1556	DC United
1537	Vancouver Whitecaps FC
1509	Columbus Crew
1484	Philadelphia Union
1479	Sporting Kansas City
1444	Chicago Fire
1431	Houston Dynamo
1404	San Jose Earthquakes
1393	Montreal Impact
1390	Toronto FC
1363	Colorado Rapids
1333	Chivas USA

West Average: 1516.22

East Average: 1485.40