| Elo Ratings | # | Team | QF% | SF% | F% | C% | |
| Rtng Team (Change in Last Month) | E1 | New York Red Bulls | 100.0% | 67.5% | 37.5% | 25.5% | |
| 1618 New York Red Bulls (+37) | E2 | Sporting Kansas City | 100.0% | 59.7% | 32.3% | 21.6% | |
| 1607 Sporting Kansas City (+35) | W1 | Portland Timbers | 100.0% | 57.6% | 28.4% | 12.6% | |
| 1589 Los Angeles Galaxy (+16) | W3 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 100.0% | 50.7% | 27.6% | 12.5% | |
| 1584 Real Salt Lake (-3) | W2 | Real Salt Lake | 100.0% | 49.3% | 26.4% | 11.8% | |
| 1581 Portland Timbers (+28) | E3 | New England Revolution | 100.0% | 40.3% | 18.0% | 5.9% | |
| 1567 San Jose Earthquakes (+25) | W4 | Seattle Sounders FC | 58.3% | 23.6% | 9.4% | 3.4% | |
| 1547 Vancouver Whitecaps FC (+50) | W5 | Colorado Rapids | 41.7% | 18.8% | 8.3% | 3.3% | |
| 1546 Colorado Rapids (+3) | E4 | Houston Dynamo | 69.4% | 23.9% | 9.5% | 2.7% | |
| 1539 New England Revolution (+55) | E5 | Montreal Impact | 30.6% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 0.6% | |
| 1515 Chicago Fire (+27) | |||||||
| 1514 Seattle Sounders FC (-100) | |||||||
| 1506 Houston Dynamo (-9) | |||||||
| 1474 Columbus Crew (-46) | |||||||
| 1457 Philadelphia Union (-23) | |||||||
| 1456 FC Dallas (+6) | |||||||
| 1454 Montreal Impact (-41) | |||||||
| 1362 Toronto FC (+5) | |||||||
| 1292 Chivas USA (-35) | |||||||
| 1292 DC United (-30) | |||||||
| West Average: 1519.55 | |||||||
| East Average: 1482.4 |
Using my Elo Ratings, I can determine the expected value of a given match-up. I can then use Bayes' Theorem to determine all possible playoff match-ups and come up with an expected outcome of the playoffs as a whole. Above is the probability - given by my Elo Rater - that each team has to advance to a specific round of the playoffs. For instance, the numbers above say that Sporting Kansas City has a 100% chance to make it through the Wild Card (because they don't play one), a 59.7% chance to make it through the quarterfinal, a 32.3% chance to make it through the semifinal, and a 21.6% chance to win MLS Cup 2012. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Montreal has a 0.6% chance to win the playoffs.
